@font-face{font-family:Newsreader;src:url('/fonts/Newsreader-Medium.ttf') format('truetype');font-weight:500;font-display:swap}
:root{--paper:#f6f3eb;--ink:#242820;--muted:#697064;--line:#d4d5c8;--green:#496537;--lime:#dfe99f;--soft:#eeeee2;--serif:Newsreader,Georgia,serif;--sans:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color-scheme:light}
*{box-sizing:border-box}html{scroll-behavior:smooth;scroll-padding-top:24px}body{margin:0;background:var(--paper);color:var(--ink);font:15px/1.5 var(--sans)}button,input,select,textarea{font:inherit;color:inherit}button,a,input,select,textarea{-webkit-tap-highlight-color:transparent}button{cursor:pointer}a{color:inherit;text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:4px}button{background:none;border:0}button:disabled{cursor:wait;opacity:.55}button:focus-visible,a:focus-visible,input:focus-visible,select:focus-visible,textarea:focus-visible,summary:focus-visible{outline:2px solid var(--green);outline-offset:4px}[hidden]{display:none!important}.page{max-width:1376px;margin:auto;padding:0 56px}.sr-only{position:absolute;width:1px;height:1px;padding:0;margin:-1px;overflow:hidden;clip:rect(0,0,0,0);white-space:nowrap;border:0}.skip{position:fixed;top:-100px;left:20px;z-index:20;padding:12px;background:var(--ink);color:var(--paper)}.skip:focus{top:12px}
.masthead{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;gap:20px;min-height:90px;border-bottom:1px solid var(--ink);font-size:12px}.brand{display:inline-flex;align-items:baseline;gap:7px;font:500 32px/1 var(--serif);letter-spacing:-1.5px;white-space:nowrap}.ink-dot{display:inline-block;width:7px;height:7px;border-radius:50%;background:var(--green)}.masthead-label{margin-left:auto;margin-right:58px;color:var(--muted)}.masthead>a:last-child span{margin-left:15px}.hero{position:relative;display:grid;grid-template-columns:1.2fr 1fr;gap:60px;padding:42px 0 51px}.eyebrow{font:11px/1.5 var(--sans);letter-spacing:1.5px;text-transform:uppercase;margin:0 0 21px}.small-cross{color:var(--green);font-size:20px;vertical-align:middle;margin-right:8px}.hero h1{font:500 clamp(65px,6.65vw,91px)/.99 var(--serif);letter-spacing:-4px;margin:0}.hero h1 em{font-family:Georgia,serif;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:-5px;color:var(--green)}.hero-copy{align-self:center;padding:22px 0 0 38px}.hero-copy>p:first-child{font:500 25px/1.3 var(--serif);margin:0 0 16px;letter-spacing:-.3px}.hero-copy .muted{font-size:14px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 21px}.muted{color:var(--muted)}.text-button{padding:0;border-bottom:1px solid var(--ink);padding-bottom:4px;font-size:12px;text-align:left}.text-button:hover{color:var(--green);border-color:var(--green)}.hero-copy .text-button span{margin-left:24px}.edition{position:absolute;right:0;top:43px;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:4px;font:9px/1.3 var(--sans);letter-spacing:1px;color:var(--muted);text-align:right}.edition span:first-child{color:var(--ink)}
.map-section{display:grid;grid-template-columns:255px 1fr;gap:38px;padding:29px 32px 25px;background:var(--soft);border:1px solid #d7d9c8}.map-intro .eyebrow{font-size:9px;margin-bottom:15px}.map-intro h2{font:500 33px/1.05 var(--serif);letter-spacing:-.7px;margin:0 0 12px}.map-intro>p:not(.eyebrow){font-size:11px;color:var(--muted);line-height:1.6;margin:0}.map-legend{display:flex;gap:17px;font-size:10px;margin-top:17px}.map-legend>span{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:6px}.legend-dot{width:8px;height:8px;border:1px solid var(--green);border-radius:50%;display:inline-block}.resolved-dot{background:var(--green)}.map-intro .map-help{margin-top:15px!important;font-size:10px!important}.confidence-map{padding-top:3px;min-width:0}.map-row{display:grid;grid-template-columns:99px minmax(0,1fr) 47px;gap:12px;align-items:center;height:40px}.map-person{font-size:11px;text-align:left;padding:0;white-space:nowrap}.map-person:hover{text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:4px}.map-track{position:relative;height:100%;border-bottom:1px solid #d2d6c6;background:repeating-linear-gradient(to right,transparent 0,transparent calc(25% - 1px),#d7dbcc calc(25% - 1px),#d7dbcc 25%)}.map-track:before{position:absolute;content:'';left:0;top:0;bottom:0;border-left:1px solid #d7dbcc}.map-mark{position:absolute;top:50%;left:var(--x);transform:translate(-50%,-50%);width:22px;height:22px;padding:5px;z-index:1}.map-mark:before{content:'';display:block;width:12px;height:12px;background:var(--soft);border:1.7px solid var(--person-color);border-radius:50%;transition:transform .15s}.map-mark.is-resolved:before{background:var(--person-color)}.map-mark:hover:before,.map-mark:focus-visible:before{transform:scale(1.55)}.map-unknown{font-size:9px;color:var(--muted);text-align:right;white-space:nowrap}.map-axis{display:grid;grid-template-columns:99px 1fr 47px;gap:12px;margin-top:10px;font-size:9px;color:var(--muted)}.map-ticks{display:flex;justify-content:space-between}.map-axis-title{text-align:center;margin:10px 0 0 111px;font-size:9px;letter-spacing:.3px;color:var(--muted)}
.view-nav{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;border-bottom:1px solid var(--ink);margin-top:31px}.view-nav>div{display:flex;gap:33px}.view-nav>div button{padding:19px 0 17px;display:flex;gap:10px;font-size:10px;color:var(--muted);border-bottom:3px solid transparent;margin-bottom:-1px}.view-nav>div button span{font-size:14px}.view-nav>div button.active{border-color:var(--ink);color:var(--ink)}.share-button{font-size:11px;padding:8px 0}.share-button span{margin-left:15px}.mode-note{font-size:10px;color:var(--muted);margin:12px 0 0}.mode-note:before{content:'';width:5px;height:5px;background:#a69468;display:inline-block;margin-right:7px;border-radius:50%}.mode-note.live:before{background:var(--green)}.record-layout{display:grid;grid-template-columns:205px minmax(0,1fr);gap:49px;margin-top:31px}.people-sidebar{padding-top:3px}.people-sidebar .eyebrow{font-size:10px;margin-bottom:14px}.people-filter{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:4px}.person-button{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:11px;text-align:left;width:100%;padding:11px 10px;font-size:12px;border:1px solid transparent;border-radius:2px}.person-button:hover{background:var(--soft)}.person-button.active{background:var(--lime);border-color:#d5df91}.avatar{width:27px;height:27px;flex-shrink:0;display:inline-grid;place-items:center;border:1px solid color-mix(in srgb,var(--person-color,var(--green)) 32%,transparent);background:color-mix(in srgb,var(--person-color,var(--green)) 8%,var(--paper));font:500 12px/1 var(--serif);color:var(--person-color,var(--green));border-radius:50%}.person-button .count{margin-left:auto;font-size:10px;color:var(--muted)}.collection-note{border-top:1px solid var(--line);margin-top:25px;padding:24px 10px 0;font-size:12px;color:var(--muted)}.collection-note .small-cross{font-size:26px}.collection-note p{margin:9px 0 13px;line-height:1.6}.collection-note button{font-size:10px;color:var(--ink)}.record-heading{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;gap:20px}.record-heading h2{font:500 30px/1.2 var(--serif);letter-spacing:-.8px;margin:0}.record-heading p{font-size:11px;color:var(--muted);margin:6px 0 0}.record-count{font-size:10px;white-space:nowrap;color:var(--muted)}.filters{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;gap:12px;margin:23px 0 20px}.status-filters{display:flex;gap:4px;flex-wrap:wrap}.status-filters button{font-size:10px;padding:6px 10px;color:var(--muted);border:1px solid transparent;border-radius:2px;white-space:nowrap}.status-filters button.active{border-color:var(--ink);color:var(--ink)}.status-filters button:hover{background:var(--soft)}.search-label{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:7px;border-bottom:1px solid var(--line);padding:4px 0;min-width:100px}.search-label>span{font-size:22px;line-height:1}.search-label input{font-size:10px;border:0;background:transparent;width:133px;min-width:0;padding:3px 0}.search-label input::placeholder{color:var(--muted)}
.forecast-card{border:1px solid var(--line);background:#faf8f2;margin-bottom:17px;scroll-margin-top:24px}.forecast-card.selected{border-color:var(--green);box-shadow:0 0 0 2px #49653718}.card-body{padding:22px 25px 20px}.card-topline{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:9px;font-size:10px}.card-topline .avatar{width:23px;height:23px;font-size:10px}.card-speaker{font-weight:600}.card-date{color:var(--muted)}.card-status{margin-left:auto;padding:3px 7px;border:1px solid var(--line);font-size:9px;white-space:nowrap}.card-status.resolved{color:var(--green);border-color:#becbac;background:#edf1e5}.card-status.missed{color:#8c594b;border-color:#dec9bd;background:#f4eae3}.card-status.needs-criteria{color:#8c703a;background:#f2ecdd;border-color:#e2d6bd}.forecast-card h3{font:500 26px/1.19 var(--serif);letter-spacing:-.5px;margin:16px 0 17px;max-width:700px}.source-block{padding:11px 0 11px 14px;border-left:2px solid #b9c4a2;margin:0;color:#616759;font:13px/1.55 Georgia,serif}.source-block p{margin:0 0 7px}.source-block a{font:10px/1.5 var(--sans);text-decoration:underline;text-decoration-color:#bbc1b2;text-underline-offset:3px}.source-kind{font:9px/1.3 var(--sans);text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.9px;display:block;margin-bottom:6px;color:var(--muted)}.card-metadata{display:flex;gap:20px;flex-wrap:wrap;font-size:10px;color:var(--muted);margin-top:15px}.criteria{font-size:11px;color:var(--muted)}.criteria summary{cursor:pointer;display:inline-block;border-bottom:1px dotted var(--muted)}.criteria p{margin:9px 0;line-height:1.6}.criteria a{text-decoration:underline}.wording-row{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;gap:12px;margin-top:18px;padding-top:14px;border-top:1px solid var(--line)}.wording-label{font-size:11px}.wording-controls{display:flex;gap:5px}.wording-controls button{padding:5px 8px;border:1px solid var(--line);font-size:10px;border-radius:2px;white-space:nowrap}.wording-controls button span{color:var(--muted);font-size:9px;margin-left:4px}.wording-controls button.active{background:var(--lime);border-color:#b6c572}.wording-controls button:hover{border-color:var(--green)}.probability-panel{display:grid;grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr) auto;align-items:center;gap:20px;padding:18px 25px;background:#f0f1e5;border-top:1px solid var(--line)}.probability-heading{display:flex;align-items:baseline;gap:11px}.probability-number{font:500 38px/1 var(--serif);letter-spacing:-1px}.probability-number small{font:500 23px/1 var(--serif)}.probability-label{font-size:10px;line-height:1.4;max-width:140px}.confidence-bar{height:3px;background:#d5dac5;max-width:230px;margin:10px 0 7px}.confidence-bar>span{display:block;height:100%;background:var(--green);width:var(--probability)}.probability-note{font-size:9px;line-height:1.5;color:var(--muted);margin:6px 0 0;max-width:310px}.probability-actions p{font-size:10px;margin:0 0 8px;text-align:right}.direction-buttons{display:flex;gap:5px}.direction-buttons button{font-size:10px;white-space:nowrap;padding:8px 10px;border:1px solid #bfc7ac;border-radius:2px;background:#f8f8ef}.direction-buttons button:hover{background:var(--lime)}.direction-buttons button.active{background:var(--ink);border-color:var(--ink);color:var(--paper)}.probability-actions .your-estimate{font-size:9px;color:var(--muted);margin:8px 0 0}.probability-actions .your-estimate button{font-size:9px;text-decoration:underline;padding:0;margin-left:7px}.estimate-editor{grid-column:1/-1;border-top:1px solid var(--line);padding-top:13px}.estimate-editor label{display:flex;justify-content:space-between;font-size:11px;margin-bottom:8px}.estimate-editor input{width:100%;accent-color:var(--green)}.estimate-editor>div{display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:center;gap:12px;font-size:10px;color:var(--muted)}.estimate-editor button{font-size:11px;background:var(--ink);color:var(--paper);padding:8px 13px}.card-bottom{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;gap:15px;padding:9px 25px;border-top:1px solid var(--line);font-size:9px;color:var(--muted)}.card-bottom button{font-size:9px;padding:2px 0}.empty-state{padding:40px 25px;border:1px dashed var(--line);text-align:center}.empty-state h3{font:500 28px var(--serif);margin:0 0 10px}.empty-state p{font-size:12px;color:var(--muted)}.empty-state button{font-size:11px;border-bottom:1px solid var(--ink);padding:0 0 3px}.loading{color:var(--muted);font-size:12px}.vote-feedback{font-size:10px;color:var(--green);margin:10px 0 0}.vote-feedback:empty{display:none}
.score-intro{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1.2fr 1fr;gap:70px;margin:35px 0 25px}.score-intro h2{font:500 38px/1.15 var(--serif);letter-spacing:-1px;margin:0}.score-intro>p{font-size:13px;color:var(--muted);align-self:end;margin:0;max-width:390px}.score-intro .eyebrow{margin-bottom:13px}.score-notice{display:flex;gap:25px;background:var(--soft);border:1px solid var(--line);padding:17px 20px;font-size:11px}.score-notice strong{white-space:nowrap}.score-notice span{color:var(--muted)}.table-wrap{overflow-x:auto;margin:22px 0}table{border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;text-align:left;white-space:nowrap}th{font-size:10px;font-weight:400;color:var(--muted);border-bottom:1px solid var(--ink);padding:14px}th:first-child,td:first-child{padding-left:0}td{padding:23px 14px;border-bottom:1px solid var(--line);font-size:13px;font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}td:first-child button{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;text-align:left;padding:0}td:first-child strong{font-weight:500}td small{display:block;font-size:10px;color:var(--muted)}.brier-number{font:500 29px/1 var(--serif)}.scoring-explainer{display:grid;grid-template-columns:.85fr 1fr 1fr;gap:40px;margin:32px 0}.scoring-explainer h3{font:500 28px/1.2 var(--serif);margin:0;letter-spacing:-.5px}.scoring-explainer p{font-size:12px;line-height:1.7;color:var(--muted);margin:0}
.method{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1.15fr;gap:40px 70px;border-top:1px solid var(--ink);margin-top:68px;padding:38px 0 35px}.method h2{font:500 41px/1.12 var(--serif);letter-spacing:-1px;margin:0}.method-steps article{display:flex;gap:22px;padding:0 0 23px}.method-steps article:last-child{padding-bottom:0}.method-steps article>span{font:11px var(--sans);color:var(--green);padding-top:4px}.method h3{font:500 20px/1.2 var(--serif);margin:0 0 7px}.method-steps p{font-size:12px;color:var(--muted);line-height:1.7;margin:0}.method-details{grid-column:1/-1;font-size:11px;color:var(--muted);border-top:1px solid var(--line);padding-top:15px}.method-details summary{cursor:pointer}.method-details p{max-width:820px;line-height:1.7}footer{border-top:1px solid var(--ink);display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;gap:25px;padding:28px 0 33px}footer .brand{font-size:26px}footer>span,footer>a:last-child{font-size:10px;color:var(--muted)}
dialog{background:var(--paper);border:1px solid var(--ink);padding:28px 32px;max-width:540px;width:calc(100% - 30px);max-height:90vh;overflow:auto;color:var(--ink)}dialog::backdrop{background:#24282066;backdrop-filter:blur(3px)}.dialog-heading{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;gap:10px}.dialog-heading .eyebrow{font-size:9px;margin:0}.icon-button{font-size:28px;line-height:1;padding:0 5px}dialog h2{font:500 40px var(--serif);letter-spacing:-1px;margin:17px 0 9px}dialog p{font-size:12px;color:var(--muted);line-height:1.65}dialog label{display:block;font-size:11px;margin-top:17px}dialog input,dialog textarea,dialog select{display:block;width:100%;padding:10px 12px;border:1px solid var(--line);background:#faf8f2;margin-top:6px;font-size:12px;border-radius:0}dialog textarea{resize:vertical}.primary-button{background:var(--ink);color:var(--paper);padding:12px 18px;width:100%;font-size:12px}.form-status{color:var(--green)}.toast{position:fixed;bottom:25px;left:50%;transform:translateX(-50%);max-width:calc(100% - 30px);width:max-content;z-index:30;background:var(--ink);color:var(--paper);border:1px solid var(--muted);padding:13px 22px;font-size:12px;box-shadow:0 5px 25px #24282020}.noscript-note,#load-error{padding:20px;color:#8c594b}.noscript-note a{text-decoration:underline}
@media(min-width:1450px){.hero{padding-top:52px;padding-bottom:57px}.hero h1{font-size:98px}.hero-copy{padding-left:65px}.edition{top:52px}}
@media(max-width:1100px){.page{padding:0 32px}.hero{gap:20px}.hero-copy{padding-left:20px}.edition{display:none}.map-section{grid-template-columns:200px 1fr;gap:20px;padding:24px}.map-row{grid-template-columns:87px 1fr 40px;gap:8px}.map-axis{grid-template-columns:87px 1fr 40px;gap:8px}.map-axis-title{margin-left:95px}.record-layout{grid-template-columns:180px 1fr;gap:28px}.forecast-card h3{font-size:24px}.probability-panel{padding:17px 20px;gap:10px}.direction-buttons button{padding:8px}.card-body{padding:20px}.filters{align-items:flex-start}.search-label input{width:105px}.status-filters{gap:0}.status-filters button{padding:6px 7px}.card-topline{flex-wrap:wrap}.wording-row{flex-wrap:wrap}.scoring-explainer{gap:25px}}
@media(max-width:780px){.page{padding:0 22px}.masthead{min-height:73px}.masthead-label{display:none}.brand{font-size:29px}.hero{padding:33px 0;grid-template-columns:1fr;gap:25px}.hero h1{font-size:74px;letter-spacing:-3px}.hero h1 em{letter-spacing:-4px}.hero .eyebrow{font-size:10px;margin-bottom:16px}.hero-copy{padding:0;display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr;gap:14px 25px}.hero-copy>p:first-child{font-size:22px;margin:0}.hero-copy .muted{margin:0;font-size:12px}.hero-copy .text-button{justify-self:start;grid-column:1/-1}.map-section{grid-template-columns:1fr;padding:21px;gap:17px}.map-intro{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr;column-gap:20px}.map-intro .eyebrow{grid-column:1/-1;margin-bottom:10px}.map-intro h2{font-size:29px;margin:0}.map-intro h2 br{display:none}.map-intro .map-help{display:none}.map-legend{grid-column:1/-1;margin-top:13px}.map-person{font-size:10px}.map-row{height:37px}.confidence-map{padding-top:0}.map-axis-title{margin-left:80px}.view-nav>div{gap:23px}.view-nav>div button span{font-size:13px}.share-button{font-size:10px}.share-button span{margin-left:5px}.record-layout{grid-template-columns:1fr;gap:23px;margin-top:23px}.people-sidebar{min-width:0}.people-sidebar>.eyebrow{display:none}.people-filter{flex-direction:row;overflow-x:auto;gap:6px;padding:1px 1px 8px}.person-button{width:auto;white-space:nowrap;padding:7px 10px;border-color:var(--line);font-size:11px}.person-button .avatar{width:22px;height:22px;font-size:10px}.person-button .count{display:none}.person-button:first-child .avatar{display:none}.collection-note{display:none}.record-heading h2{font-size:29px}.record-heading p{font-size:10px}.filters{margin-top:20px}.status-filters button{font-size:10px;padding:6px 8px}.search-label input{width:120px}.forecast-card h3{font-size:26px}.probability-panel{padding:19px 20px}.card-body{padding:20px}.method{margin-top:45px;grid-template-columns:1fr;gap:28px}.method h2{font-size:35px}.method-steps article{gap:17px}.method-details{grid-column:auto}footer>span{display:none}.score-intro{grid-template-columns:1fr;gap:20px}.score-intro h2{font-size:33px}.score-intro>p{max-width:none}.score-notice{flex-direction:column;gap:8px}.scoring-explainer{grid-template-columns:1fr;gap:15px}}
@media(max-width:470px){.page{padding:0 17px}.hero h1{font-size:65px}.hero-copy{grid-template-columns:1fr;gap:12px}.hero-copy>p:first-child br{display:none}.hero-copy .muted br{display:none}.hero-copy .text-button{margin-top:3px}.map-section{padding:18px 15px}.map-intro{grid-template-columns:1fr}.map-intro>p:not(.eyebrow){display:none}.map-intro h2{font-size:27px}.map-legend{margin-top:11px}.map-row{grid-template-columns:77px 1fr 31px;gap:6px}.map-axis{grid-template-columns:77px 1fr 31px;gap:6px}.map-unknown{font-size:8px}.map-mark{padding:6px}.map-mark:before{width:10px;height:10px}.map-person{font-size:9px}.map-axis-title{font-size:8px;margin-left:83px}.view-nav>div{gap:18px}.view-nav>div button{gap:6px}.view-nav>div button span{font-size:12px}.share-button{font-size:0}.share-button span{font-size:18px}.record-count{font-size:9px}.record-heading h2{font-size:25px}.filters{flex-wrap:wrap;gap:12px}.search-label{width:100%}.search-label input{width:100%}.card-body{padding:17px}.card-date{font-size:9px}.card-topline{gap:6px}.card-status{font-size:8px;padding:3px 5px}.forecast-card h3{font-size:25px}.source-block{font-size:12px}.wording-row{gap:10px}.wording-controls{width:100%}.wording-controls button{flex:1;padding:7px 5px}.probability-panel{grid-template-columns:1fr;gap:16px;padding:17px}.probability-actions p{text-align:left}.probability-actions{border-top:1px solid var(--line);padding-top:12px}.direction-buttons button{flex:1}.probability-note{max-width:none}.card-bottom{padding:10px 17px}.confidence-bar{max-width:none}.probability-number{font-size:37px}.toast{font-size:11px;padding:12px 16px}dialog{padding:23px}footer{padding:23px 0}.method{padding-top:29px}}
.proposed-label{margin:15px 0 5px;font-size:9px;letter-spacing:.55px;text-transform:uppercase;color:var(--muted)}.forecast-card .proposed-label+h3{margin-top:0}.card-bottom>div{display:flex;gap:14px;flex-shrink:0}@media(max-width:470px){.card-bottom{flex-wrap:wrap;gap:6px}.card-bottom>div{width:100%;justify-content:space-between}}
@media(prefers-reduced-motion:reduce){html{scroll-behavior:auto}*,*:before,*:after{transition:none!important}}